Another Vancouver Real Estate Theory… Bubble Popping theories are like assholes; everyone has one.

Right now, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, a typical Greater Vancouver house costs $715,700. With a mortgage for 75 per cent of the value of that house, a quarter point increase would only mean a further $85 a month. That would only affect someone on the margins, he says.

But on the other hand, with the increases that we’ve had since January, that adds about $286 a month. And if you go back to the lowest point of interest rates in July 2005, that’s a $500 a month difference. As Somerville says, “That does bite.”

25% down payment? I know that they aren’t talking about new home buyers at that rate; I don’t know anyone in Vancouver with that sort of available cash. I miss living in Vancouver; I liked living in Gastown for all its problems, even the sketchy people were mostly nice. When a shitty little condo in that area is still going for $650,000 for 700 square feet, it’s not a place that’s easy to return to.

I’d want to live on the Downtown East side were I to end up in Vancouver again; if I had to live in Surrey, I may as well move to Calgary…

“People have this notion that when the cycle ends, housing in Vancouver will be affordable.” He laughs. “Get real. …”

Condos are going to sit empty, and bankruptcy trustees are going to be making some nice commissions off people who mortgaged themselves to within inches of eating; only to see their monthly payments jump by up to $500 per month.